Helmut Norpoth discusses problems with poll numbers. Professor. Ph.D., University of Michigan, 1974. Department of Political Science. Norpoth has predicted accurately the winners of many general elections. Here is what he had to say.
The Primary Model (2016)
87%-99% Certain Trump Will Be President
Primaries Predict Election Winner — Cycle Also Favors GOP —
Forecast Model Batting 5 for 5 (since 1996)
by Helmut Norpoth
It is 87% to 99% certain that Donald Trump will win the presidential election on November 8, 2016; 87% if running against Hillary Clinton, 99% if against Bernie Sanders.
These predictions come from primarymodel.com
It is a statistical model that relies on presidential primaries and an election cycle as predictors of the vote in the general election.
Winning the early primaries is a major key for electoral victory in November. Trump won the Republican primaries in both New Hampshire and the South Carolina while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders split the Democratic primaries in those states.
What favors the GOP in 2016 as well, no matter if Trump is the nominee or any other Republican, is the cycle of presidential elections. After two terms of Democrat Barack Obama in the White House the electoral pendulum is poised to swing to the GOP this year.